VFR into IMC · NTSB WPR15FA135
PIPER PA32R - 301 — Townsend, MT
| Date | March 26, 2015 |
| Location | Townsend, MT |
| Aircraft | PIPER PA32R - 301 |
| Purpose of flight | Personal |
| Conditions | Day · Instrument Meteorological Cond |
| Phase / occurrence | Enroute-change of cruise level Course deviation |
| Pilot age | 56 |
| Pilot total time | 628 hrs · Building experience |
| Time in type | 31 hrs |
| Fatalities | 1, 1 serious |
Probable cause
NTSB findings
- Personnel issues-Action/decision-Info processing/decision-Decision making/judgment-Pilot - C
- Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Ceiling/visibility/precip-Low visibility-Decision related to condition - C
- Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Ceiling/visibility/precip-Low visibility-Effect on operation - C
- Aircraft-Aircraft oper/perf/capability-Performance/control parameters-Altitude-Not attained/maintained - C
- Personnel issues-Experience/knowledge-Experience/qualifications-Recent instrument experience-Pilot - F
- Personnel issues-Experience/knowledge-Experience/qualifications-Qualification/certification-Pilot - F
- Personnel issues-Psychological-Perception/orientation/illusion-Situational awareness-Pilot
- Environmental issues-Conditions/weather/phenomena-Wind-Downdraft-Effect on operation
What happened
The instrument-rated private pilot received an official weather briefing before beginning the visual flight rules (VFR) cross-county flight over mountainous terrain. The briefing included information about turbulence, icing, and mountain obscuration along the proposed route of flight, and the briefer stated that VFR flight was not recommended in areas of higher terrain with mountain obscuration. However, the pilot elected to depart on the flight. The passenger reported that during the flight, the weather started closing in, and they were soon in the clouds. The pilot was receiving VFR flight following service, and reported to the controller that he was turning around; soon after communication was lost.
Review of radar data revealed that, over the last 4 minutes of the flight, the airplane made multiple turns while ascending to 10,125 ft msl over mountainous terrain with peaks reaching 9,400 ft in height; it then headed southbound and descended to an altitude of 9,300 ft msl before dropping off radar. The accident site was located in heavily wooded and snow-covered terrain at an elevation of 8,350 ft. Damage to the airplane and to the trees at the accident site was consistent with controlled flight into terrain with the engine operating at a high power setting.
Examination of the pilot's logbook indicated that an instrument check ride was accomplished in December 2008, about 6 years 3 months before the accident and that the pilot had not logged any flight experience between December 2008 and October 2014, about 6 months before the accident. According to the logbook, the pilot was not current to act as pilot-in-command under instrument flight rules and likely was not proficient in instrument flight.
A weather model simulation revealed that the airplane likely encountered rapid horizontal wind speed changes along with downdrafts during the last 4 minutes of the flight. These downdrafts, which were likely encountered while the airplane was in clouds, would have increased the pilot's difficulty of maintaining level flight. If the pilot had been instrument current, he would likely have been better prepared to cope with the weather conditions encountered, including the mountain obscuration and the downdrafts.